关键词:

乙肝病毒感染, 肝癌, 疾病负担, 趋势分析

Abstract:

Objective　To analyze the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in China. Methods　The global disease burden data from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed, so as to reveal the changing trends and influencing factors of the disease burden of HBV-related HCC. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess the trends of the incidence rates globally and in China. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to separate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the disease burden. According to the GBD guidance in 2019, the global standard population was used to standardize the incidence rate, morbidity rate, disability adjusted life year (DALY) rate, and YLDs in age. The changing rate of each indicator from 1990 to 2021 was calculated. The disease burden of HBV-related HCC of different age groups was analyzed. The statistical analyses were performed by the SPSS 23.0 and R language software. Results　The standardized mortality rate, standardized DALYs, standardized morbidity rate, and standardized incidence rate of HBV-related HCC showed a significant downward trend globally and in China. In China, the number of male patients with HBV-related HCC was higher than that of females, with the peak incidence occurring in >50-70 years old males. The Joinpoint regression model showed that from 1990 to 1997, the standardized mortality rate of HBV-related HCC decreased significantly, increased obviously from 1997 to 2014, and decreased again from 2014 to 2024. From 1990 to 1995, the standardized morbidity rate of HBV-related HCC declined slowly, increased rapidly from 1995 to 2003, rose slowly from 2003 to 2011, and showed a significant downward trend from 2011 to 2021. From 1990 to 1995, the standardized incidence rate of HBV-related HCC declined slowly, increased rapidly from 1995 to 2013, and decreased sharply from 2013 to 2021. From 1990 to 1997, the standardized DALYs of HBV-related HCC declined slowly, increased rapidly from 1997 to 2012, and decreased sharply again from 2012 to 2021. Conclusions　The disease burden of HBV-related HCC has shown a decreasing trend globally and in China. The study reveals the impact of sociodemographic indices, age, period, and birth cohort on the disease. These findings provide some scientific evidences for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.

Key words:

Hepatitis B virus infection, Hepatocellular carcinoma, Disease burden, Trend analysis